Coping with Climate Variability by Colleen Vogel Karen o'Brien

Author:Colleen Vogel, Karen o'Brien [Colleen Vogel, Karen o'Brien]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781138707498
Barnesnoble:
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Published: 2018-12-31T00:00:00+00:00

3. Reliability of Forecasts

Spatial and temporal limitations of forecasts are further compounded by problems related to the perceived reliability of the forecasts. The lack of belief in the forecasts emerged as a crucial constraint for agribusiness. From a user’s perspective, little is known about the quality of the forecasts. In the agribusinesses interviewed for this study, some indication of the reliability of the forecast was often requested. As one manager put it, “we would like to see how good [the forecast] actually is, and we need more information about the skill that is involved. We would like to see what actually happened, like for last year for example.” At present, users’ evaluations of forecast quality largely depend on how they perceive the performance of past forecasts. This, in turn, is often influenced by the media’s portrayal of a forecast and the outcomes.

A forecast that was perceived as inaccurate, as was the case with the 1997/98 El Niño forecast, can influence future uptake and use of forecasts. Many users were keen to know why the 1997/98 forecast did not reflect actual conditions, i.e., why the event had not been as extreme as they had been led to believe. The potential use of a forecast may arguably be improved if reasons behind a poor forecast-such as unexpected changes in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures-are explained (see Chapter 1, this volume). As one respondent expressed, “we remember what happened, and if the last El Niño had come right, then I think that people in Swaziland would make serious decisions” based on the forecasts. In other words, there is a general understanding among agribusinesses that “weather prediction has to prove itself.”

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